Pre-tourney Rankings
Ohio Valley
2011-12


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
42 Murray St. 100.0%   6   27 - 1 15 - 1 27 - 1 15 - 1 +9.3      +4.3 65 +5.0 41 67.7 163 +19.9 4 +11.0 1
165 Tennessee St. 0.0%   18 - 12 11 - 5 18 - 12 11 - 5 +0.1      -0.9 200 +1.0 139 66.8 188 +1.8 143 +1.7 2
180 Tennessee Tech 0.0%   17 - 13 9 - 7 17 - 13 9 - 7 -0.8      +1.2 136 -2.0 230 72.4 64 +0.3 164 -1.8 4
203 Morehead St. 0.0%   15 - 15 10 - 6 15 - 15 10 - 6 -2.0      -1.5 218 -0.6 184 57.2 333 -1.4 189 -0.9 3
211 Jacksonville St. 0.0%   13 - 17 8 - 8 13 - 17 8 - 8 -2.5      -3.2 259 +0.7 147 64.6 250 -4.9 244 -4.5 7
212 Austin Peay 0.0%   11 - 20 8 - 8 11 - 20 8 - 8 -2.6      -0.6 187 -2.1 235 74.0 40 -3.6 228 -3.7 6
230 Southeast Missouri St. 0.0%   13 - 16 9 - 7 13 - 16 9 - 7 -3.7      +1.1 141 -4.8 293 67.4 173 -5.1 246 -2.6 5
262 Eastern Kentucky 0.0%   14 - 16 7 - 9 14 - 16 7 - 9 -6.0      -0.7 189 -5.3 309 60.1 313 -4.3 238 -5.5 8
299 Eastern Illinois 0.0%   10 - 17 5 - 11 10 - 17 5 - 11 -8.8      -3.4 266 -5.4 312 63.2 272 -7.9 287 -9.3 10
307 SIU Edwardsville 0.0%   8 - 17 6 - 10 8 - 17 6 - 10 -9.9      -4.6 286 -5.3 307 72.9 52 -8.3 289 -6.7 9
334 Tennessee Martin 0.0%   2 - 27 0 - 16 2 - 27 0 - 16 -14.5      -6.1 303 -8.4 337 67.9 157 -18.3 336 -22.9 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Murray St. 1.0 100.0
Tennessee St. 2.0 100.0
Tennessee Tech 4.0 100.0
Morehead St. 3.0 100.0
Jacksonville St. 6.0 100.0
Austin Peay 6.0 100.0
Southeast Missouri St. 4.0 100.0
Eastern Kentucky 8.0 100.0
Eastern Illinois 10.0 100.0
SIU Edwardsville 9.0 100.0
Tennessee Martin 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Murray St. 15 - 1 100.0
Tennessee St. 11 - 5 100.0
Tennessee Tech 9 - 7 100.0
Morehead St. 10 - 6 100.0
Jacksonville St. 8 - 8 100.0
Austin Peay 8 - 8 100.0
Southeast Missouri St. 9 - 7 100.0
Eastern Kentucky 7 - 9 100.0
Eastern Illinois 5 - 11 100.0
SIU Edwardsville 6 - 10 100.0
Tennessee Martin 0 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Murray St. 100.0% 100.0
Tennessee St.
Tennessee Tech
Morehead St.
Jacksonville St.
Austin Peay
Southeast Missouri St.
Eastern Kentucky
Eastern Illinois
SIU Edwardsville
Tennessee Martin


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Murray St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 6   0.1 1.6 15.4 34.3 21.5 15.2 9.4 2.2 0.2
Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Morehead St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Austin Peay 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Murray St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 49.4% 15.3% 4.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.0 100.0
2nd Round 49.4% 0.5 50.6 49.4
Sweet Sixteen 15.3% 0.2 84.7 15.3
Elite Eight 4.7% 0.0 95.3 4.7
Final Four 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1